The Fightins'
Apr
02
2009
Who Wanna Gamble? The 2009 Phillies Betting Preview
Posted by at 8:54 am ET 42 Comments

Oooooooh-weeee!

I love me some gambling.

Well, let me rephrase — I loved me some gambling.  Ya know, before it took over my life and went from a fun hobby to something that was negatively affecting my day-to-day life.   Seriously, I reached a point about 5 years ago where I couldn’t even watch a sporting event unless the result would either leave me $500 richer or frantically tearing through my room looking for something that would fetch good money on eBay.  Don’t get me wrong, I won a lot.  Like, a lot lot.  But most of the time, I couldn’t even share my newfound piles of cash with anyone I knew out of fear that they would catch on to my sickness and ask me to stop.  So I’d just stash it away until the inevitable bad week.  Then I finally had that really bad week that forced me into retirement.

As a matter of fact, the thing that helped me out the most when I was in the process of quitting was when I took the writing gig over at Bugs&Cranks in December of ’06.  Instead of spending every free moment studying the daily betting lines, I’d scour the ‘net for stupid Phillies news to write about.

That’s the key to stopping a bad addiction, folks.  By replacing it with something else equally as addicting.  (LESSON!)

But enough about me.  Let’s get back to the original point of this post; to browse the numerous future bets for the 2009 Phillies season and choose where we should invest our pretend money.  By the way, even if you are a current gambler, I don’t recommend laying any scratch down on these future bets.  They, along with parlays and teasers, are the suckerest of sucker bets.  There are waaay too many variables to be factored into a 162-game baseball season; you’re better off just taking whatever money you would have bet on these and buy something that you can actually get some use out of.  Like fashionable t-shirts!

After the jump, we’re picking over/unders.

All odds provided by Bodog

2009 Regular Season Wins – Philadelphia Phillies

Over 88½ (-130)
Under 88½ (EVEN)

For the defending World Series champions, this number seems to be a bit too low.  Almost like they are begging you to take the over, which people have obviously done since it’s now up to -130.  However, the almighty PECOTA has the Phils pegged as an 87.1 win squad, so it’s not like there is a huge discrepancy there.  This is one of the tougher decisions of the group, but gun to my head — I’d lay the 130 and take the OVER.  Barring major injuries to the pitching staff, I see no reason the Phillies can’t win 94 this year.

***

How many HR’s will Ryan Howard have in the 2009 Season?

Over 43½ (-130)
Under 43½ (EVEN)

43½, huh?  Is this like how many they think he’ll hit before the All-Star break?  Fucking OVER.

***

How many HR’s will Chase Utley have in the 2009 Season?

Over 27½ (-115)
Under 27½ (-115)

Last season, bum hip and all, Chase Utley eclipsed the 27½ home run plateau by August 3rd.  Now do the folks at Bodog think his injury problem will linger this year causing a lack of pop from silver sluggin’/golden locked World Fucking Champion?  Obviously.  But I would need to be so effing intoxicated in order to bet against Chase that I’m taking my buck-fifteen and going OVER.

***

How many HR’s will Raul Ibanez have in the 2009 Season?

Over 22½ (-135)
Under 22½ (+105)

Call me negative, but I just don’t see this whole Raul Ibanez situation working out too well.  Yes, it’s mostly due to the fact that he’s replacing one of my life heroes in Pat Burrell.  And yes, I realize I kinda look like a complete homer who isn’t so much prognosticating as he is just typing “over” again and again.  So for those two reasons, I’m going UNDER and taking my +105 with me.

***

How many Stolen Bases will Jimmy Rollins have in the 2009 Season?

Over 39½ (-115)
Under 39½ (-115)

Jimmy Rollins is too good of a base stealer to be held under 40 this year.  Even in his off year (by his standards) in 2008, he still managed to swipe 47 bags while being caught only THREE TIMES.  This season I believe Jimmy will be getting on base more often, which by default, will lead to more SB opportunities.  Even if the total was 49½ I think I’d go above it, but at 10 full steals lower?  I’m loading up, maing.  OVER.

***

How many Stolen Bases will Shane Victorino have in the 2009 Season?

Over 34½ (+130)
Under 34½ (-160)

As much as I enjoy Shane Victorino’s reckless behavior on the basepaths, it appears as though his stealing technique isn’t getting any better. In ’07 — by far his best base-thieving year — Shane swiped 37 bags while only being caught 4 times. Last year, even though he was on base approximately 50 more times than ’07, he saw his SB’s decrease by one and CS’s increase by seven. That’s not going in the right direction, fella. Can Shane steal more than 34½ bases this year? Oh, no questions asked. But I’ll put up the 160 to win 100 on the UNDER.

***

How many Wins will Cole Hamels have in the 2009 Season?

Over 14½ (+120)
Under 14½ (-150)

This bet is actually off the board right now because of his injury concerns. Regardless, the right play here is certainly the UNDER. But frankly, I don’t care as long as he goes out and wins 4 games again in the postseason.

***

How many Wins will Brett Myers have in the 2009 Season?

Over 11½ (-135)
Under 11½ (+105)

Not only is Brett Myers in his contract year, but he’ll almost definitely have a bigger workload in aught-nine (barring any unforeseen trips to the minors), and he’ll be pitching with the swagger of a WFC — I’m going OVER.

***

How many Saves will Brad Lidge have in the 2009 Season?

Over 37½ (+110)
Under 37½ (-140)

The absolute dumbest bet of the group right here. As you saw with Franny Rodriguez last year, any closer who is fortunate enough to play on a team that constantly holds leads of 3-runs or less can finish the season with 60+. For the price here (+110), I’d venture to guess the Phillies fit the bill to be one of those type of teams. And for that, I complete my betting slip with yet another OVER.

***

Let’s recap:  OVER 88½ regular season wins (-130), OVER 43½ Ryan Howard home runs (-130), OVER 27½ Chase Utley home runs (-115), UNDER 22½ Raul Ibanez home runs (+105), OVER 39½ Jimmy Rollins steals (-115), UNDER 34½ Shane Victorino steals (-160), UNDER 14½ Cole Hamels wins (-150), OVER 11½ Brett Myers wins (-135), OVER 37½ Brad Lidge saves (+110).  Place your bets accordingly.

  • Gambit

    I’d take OVER on all of them, as well.

  • will.H

    id take over on all of them too. howard hits 50 plus with ibanez or werth behind hiim. the line up sees many looks this season, utleys numbers might go down hitting out of the 2 hole once in a while. 88 wins is tough in this division. but then again, so is going 24-6 in your last 30 of 2008. expect injuries and the young guns to pick up some needed slack. jc romero returns june 1st for one of the most exciting appearences out of the bullpen since #54 on october 29, 2008. hes going to strike out the side with 8 fastballs and 1 slider.

  • http://phillybri.blogspot.com Brian

    I’ll take the over on everyone, except for Hamels. I’ll take the under there…

  • http://housethatglanvillebuilt.blogspot.com Reverend Paul Revere

    Wanna know what’s weird? I love sports to no end and I love gambling to no end … yet I’ve never bet on sports. How does this work? I’ll play poker and blackjack and roulette any time, anywhere, of course while watching a game, but I’ve never got into sports betting. And I know about 8,000 bookies. What’s that about?

  • will.H

    reverend, i think you’re reffering to self controll

  • http://supersmooth.ytmnd.com/ Tug Haines

    I’m betting on Chase Utley getting EXACTLY 27.5 HRs this year.

  • http://www.thefightins.com meech.one

    Oooh, we got a risk taker! I like the way you think, Tug.

  • http://www.superfantabulousblog.blogspot.com maria

    Sarge was on DNL yesterday. He was wearing a fine fedora.

  • Mr. Bryan

    Tug does that mean that Chase will legitimately get a homer, but the a-hole umps will give him a ground rule double?

  • Wawa

    so what you’re saying is only have good weeks of gambling? gotcha

  • http://housethatglanvillebuilt.blogspot.com Reverend Paul Revere

    I wouldn’t call it self-control because I typically lack that in all I do … ask strippers. Just never got the itch. Go figure.

  • http://www.thefightins.com meech.one

    Either that, Wawa, or be responsible. But only having good weeks is a lot more fun.

  • http://www.thefightins.com meech.one

    “I wouldn’t call it self-control because I typically lack that in all I do … ask strippers. Just never got the itch.”

    You’re lucky — you mess around with strippers long enough and you’re almost guaranteed to get “the itch”

  • PhillyCubano

    parlays, etc are for suckers but i saw your arizona cleveland state parlay on twitter meech

    That was a nice one

  • Danny

    I’m going in a different baseball betting direction, but I just wanted to see what some other people thought…

    Last year, the Rays were 200/1 to win the World Series, and Vegas was shaking in their boots until the WFCs came along and saved the day. This year, I was trying to figure out who is going to be that team to scare Vegas this year, and I came up with…

    The Texas Rangers, at 100/1. They play in the noticeably weaker AL West. The Angels offense is much worse, with Tex leaving and Vlad aging two years in one offseason (amazing feat). Ervin Santana and Lackey are out for the first month, while Joe Saunders is experiencing arm fatigue and the season hasn’t even begun. For the A’s, even with Holliday the offense isn’t turning any heads and Duch already has elbow issues that will keep him out for a month. The Mariners are the Mariners, they aren’t even in the picture.

    I’m a firm believer that a great offense can get you to the playoffs, but it’s a pitching staff that wins a World Series. The Rangers might not have this, but they have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Brandon McCarthy is bound to live up to some of his potential eventually, and they have two ridiculous prospects that could be called up or traded out of desperation in July. They have a scary team, and who knows what can happen in the postseason.

    Tell me what you think about that bet — I’m not making it because I hate waiting for futures bets that long, but I think it’s the Cinderella World Series pick of the year. You know, besides the Phils at 15/1.

  • http://www.thefightins.com How do you spell retard?

    Number of creepy (see Ballgirl, Sarge, etc.) tribute posts by meech.one this season: 12.5

    Place your bets.

  • http://www.superfantabulousblog.blogspot.com maria

    Definitely over HDYSR? It should start around 21.5. I have a feeling there will be a shitload of Sarge posts this year.

  • Doug

    Definitely taking the over on that one, Howdy.

  • http://housethatglanvillebuilt.blogspot.com Reverend Paul Revere

    hmmm excellent point meech. Gotta work on that.

  • J-D

    Ill take the over on almost all those… along with Penn St. +3.5 tonight in the NIT

  • http://www.TheFightins.com Dash Treyhorn

    How many times will Tim McCarver pronounce our starting catcher’s name as “Rooz” this season: 55.5

  • http://www.TheFightins.com Dash Treyhorn

    Number of times Wheels incorrectly refers to a pitch as a cutter: 612.5

  • Here Come Da Judge

    How many times Sarge will say “cadillac” this season: 50

  • http://www.phillieslongdrive.com Chris

    A lot fo these bets are pretty easy to pick. Or so it seems…

  • TF

    Number of times “everybody hits” this season: 160.5

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kChDiQVAAE Gigi

    do you have the line on david wright open-mouth kissing jose reyes in the midst of an infield pop up?

  • http://supersmooth.ytmnd.com/ Tug Haines

    Mr. Brian, I was thinking more along the lines of the blown call by the Brothers Welke and Dipshit Meriwether last April during the 3rd game of the Cubs @ Phillies series, Mark DeRosa’s foul ball/HR that cost the Phils the game. (And no, I’m not letting it go, WFC or not.)

  • http://www.thefightins.com meech.one

    @Gigi: I believe that’s off the board.

    btw, these are fantastic fellas. It would’ve been much more entertaining to just do a post with all of these alternate over/unders. Thankfully, there ain’t shit to do from now until Sunday so there’s still time.

  • http://supersmooth.ytmnd.com/ Tug Haines

    Number of balls on Joe Buck’s chin: 2 (at all times)

  • http://www.TheFightins.com Dash Treyhorn

    Number of de-flowerments in Tampa by the Midnight Mayor of Center City: 17.5

    It’s worth noting that is the line just for April.

  • j_romes

    Is there a number of Sarge “as well”s that could justify taking an under?

  • doubleh

    Also, number of Victorino’s “No Questions Asked” and Hamels’ “ya’ knows” in post game interviews…

    Wheeler’s “fastball middle in”.

  • TF

    Wheeler’s pointing out of wacky lefty relievers with ill-fitting hats…

  • Tartan69

    Average number of times per game that Wheels says “middle in” — 4.2

    Average number of times per game during the 9th inning that Wheels mentions the “no doubles defense” — 1.7

  • D.Whitmore

    any wanna bet on how many times the phrase “cadillac time” is said?

  • Gonzo

    Number of times per game that Tom McCarthy is giving a report from Ashburn Alley during an Utley or Howard at-bat: over/under 4

  • Jim

    Number of games in which Raul Ibanez is pulled in the late innings for a defensive replacement – 97.3

  • will.H

    D.Whitmore, better yet, how many times will a fat black kid say ”itss knuccklllepuckk tiiime”

  • http://www.phillysportspride.com Nicky TiTs

    number of times wheels annoys us during a telecast -161.5 ………and number of times the sarge talks about a player striking out 4 times as being called “the golden sambreoo”- 72

  • Jay

    It’s aught-nine, man.

  • http://www.thefightins.com meech.one

    Thanks, Jay. I aught to have know that. (Get it?!)

  • Jay

    That was terrible.

    A cashew and a walnut ride into a bar on a camel and the cashew is assaulted.

Written by

...

@meechone
Visit The Fightins Store
R.I.P Harry Kalas