I love me some gambling.
Well, let me rephrase — I loved me some gambling. Ya know, before it took over my life and went from a fun hobby to something that was negatively affecting my day-to-day life. Seriously, I reached a point about 5 years ago where I couldn’t even watch a sporting event unless the result would either leave me $500 richer or frantically tearing through my room looking for something that would fetch good money on eBay. Don’t get me wrong, I won a lot. Like, a lot lot. But most of the time, I couldn’t even share my newfound piles of cash with anyone I knew out of fear that they would catch on to my sickness and ask me to stop. So I’d just stash it away until the inevitable bad week. Then I finally had that really bad week that forced me into retirement.
As a matter of fact, the thing that helped me out the most when I was in the process of quitting was when I took the writing gig over at Bugs&Cranks in December of ’06. Instead of spending every free moment studying the daily betting lines, I’d scour the ‘net for stupid Phillies news to write about.
That’s the key to stopping a bad addiction, folks. By replacing it with something else equally as addicting. (LESSON!)
But enough about me. Let’s get back to the original point of this post; to browse the numerous future bets for the 2009 Phillies season and choose where we should invest our pretend money. By the way, even if you are a current gambler, I don’t recommend laying any scratch down on these future bets. They, along with parlays and teasers, are the suckerest of sucker bets. There are waaay too many variables to be factored into a 162-game baseball season; you’re better off just taking whatever money you would have bet on these and buy something that you can actually get some use out of. Like fashionable t-shirts!
After the jump, we’re picking over/unders.
All odds provided by Bodog
2009 Regular Season Wins – Philadelphia Phillies
Over 88½ (-130)
Under 88½ (EVEN)
For the defending World Series champions, this number seems to be a bit too low. Almost like they are begging you to take the over, which people have obviously done since it’s now up to -130. However, the almighty PECOTA has the Phils pegged as an 87.1 win squad, so it’s not like there is a huge discrepancy there. This is one of the tougher decisions of the group, but gun to my head — I’d lay the 130 and take the OVER. Barring major injuries to the pitching staff, I see no reason the Phillies can’t win 94 this year.
How many HR’s will Ryan Howard have in the 2009 Season?
Over 43½ (-130)
Under 43½ (EVEN)
43½, huh? Is this like how many they think he’ll hit before the All-Star break? Fucking OVER.
How many HR’s will Chase Utley have in the 2009 Season?
Over 27½ (-115)
Under 27½ (-115)
Last season, bum hip and all, Chase Utley eclipsed the 27½ home run plateau by August 3rd. Now do the folks at Bodog think his injury problem will linger this year causing a lack of pop from silver sluggin’/golden locked World Fucking Champion? Obviously. But I would need to be so effing intoxicated in order to bet against Chase that I’m taking my buck-fifteen and going OVER.
How many HR’s will Raul Ibanez have in the 2009 Season?
Over 22½ (-135)
Under 22½ (+105)
Call me negative, but I just don’t see this whole Raul Ibanez situation working out too well. Yes, it’s mostly due to the fact that he’s replacing one of my life heroes in Pat Burrell. And yes, I realize I kinda look like a complete homer who isn’t so much prognosticating as he is just typing “over” again and again. So for those two reasons, I’m going UNDER and taking my +105 with me.
How many Stolen Bases will Jimmy Rollins have in the 2009 Season?
Over 39½ (-115)
Under 39½ (-115)
Jimmy Rollins is too good of a base stealer to be held under 40 this year. Even in his off year (by his standards) in 2008, he still managed to swipe 47 bags while being caught only THREE TIMES. This season I believe Jimmy will be getting on base more often, which by default, will lead to more SB opportunities. Even if the total was 49½ I think I’d go above it, but at 10 full steals lower? I’m loading up, maing. OVER.
How many Stolen Bases will Shane Victorino have in the 2009 Season?
Over 34½ (+130)
Under 34½ (-160)
As much as I enjoy Shane Victorino’s reckless behavior on the basepaths, it appears as though his stealing technique isn’t getting any better. In ’07 — by far his best base-thieving year — Shane swiped 37 bags while only being caught 4 times. Last year, even though he was on base approximately 50 more times than ’07, he saw his SB’s decrease by one and CS’s increase by seven. That’s not going in the right direction, fella. Can Shane steal more than 34½ bases this year? Oh, no questions asked. But I’ll put up the 160 to win 100 on the UNDER.
How many Wins will Cole Hamels have in the 2009 Season?
Over 14½ (+120)
Under 14½ (-150)
This bet is actually off the board right now because of his injury concerns. Regardless, the right play here is certainly the UNDER. But frankly, I don’t care as long as he goes out and wins 4 games again in the postseason.
How many Wins will Brett Myers have in the 2009 Season?
Over 11½ (-135)
Under 11½ (+105)
Not only is Brett Myers in his contract year, but he’ll almost definitely have a bigger workload in aught-nine (barring any unforeseen trips to the minors), and he’ll be pitching with the swagger of a WFC — I’m going OVER.
How many Saves will Brad Lidge have in the 2009 Season?
Over 37½ (+110)
Under 37½ (-140)
The absolute dumbest bet of the group right here. As you saw with Franny Rodriguez last year, any closer who is fortunate enough to play on a team that constantly holds leads of 3-runs or less can finish the season with 60+. For the price here (+110), I’d venture to guess the Phillies fit the bill to be one of those type of teams. And for that, I complete my betting slip with yet another OVER.
Let’s recap: OVER 88½ regular season wins (-130), OVER 43½ Ryan Howard home runs (-130), OVER 27½ Chase Utley home runs (-115), UNDER 22½ Raul Ibanez home runs (+105), OVER 39½ Jimmy Rollins steals (-115), UNDER 34½ Shane Victorino steals (-160), UNDER 14½ Cole Hamels wins (-150), OVER 11½ Brett Myers wins (-135), OVER 37½ Brad Lidge saves (+110). Place your bets accordingly.
- 700 Level
- Crashburn Alley
- High Cheese
- House That Glanville Built
- Philadelphia Will Do
- Philled In
- Philly Gameday
- Philly Gossip
- Phoul Ballz
- The Good Phight
- The Insider
- The Zo Zone
- Where's Weems?
- Who Does He Play For?
- Zoo With Roy